Florida’s real estate market has been on a very different trajectory than the national trend and new projections suggest that 2026 may bring additional price declines across much of the state. According to the Realtor.com® 2026 National Housing Forecast, Florida’s eight largest metro areas are expected to see an average -1.9% drop in home prices, even as the national market posts modest gains.

Only Miami is projected to see positive appreciation next year at a modest +1.1%, while many Gulf Coast cities may face the steepest declines.

📉 Where Florida Home Prices Are Falling the Most

The data shows that several markets, particularly on the Gulf Coast, may experience the sharpest corrections:

• Cape Coral: -10.2% projected decline

• North Port: -8.9%

• Tampa: -3.6%

These projections follow several years of softening demand. Statewide, median listing prices were down 6% in early 2025 compared with 2023, driven largely by the condo sector.

🏠 Why Are Florida Home Prices Softening?

According to Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner, Florida’s pricing challenges stem from a mix of rising supply and easing demand. Several key factors are contributing:

1. Increased Inventory

More homeowners are listing their properties at the same time demand has cooled.

2. Rising Costs of Ownership

Soaring insurance premiums, escalating HOA fees, and condo special assessments have made monthly ownership costs significantly higher, weighing down buyer interest.

3. New Construction Oversupply

Florida has seen a large amount of new construction in recent years. With the slowdown in remote work and migration patterns shifting again, demand isn’t keeping pace.

4. Mortgage Rates + Affordability Pressure

While easing mortgage rates may help some renters transition into first-time buyers, the auxiliary costs of homeownership remain a significant barrier.

🏢 Condo Prices Leading the Decline

The condo market is the biggest contributor to Florida’s overall price decline:

• Condo median listing prices: -10.8% year-over-year

• Single-family home listings: -3.6% year-over-year

• Condo price-per-square-foot: -9.3% over two years

• Single-family price-per-square-foot: -2.5% over two years

This is largely due to increasingly strict building regulations, aging infrastructure, and rising HOA special assessments.

📈 Long-Term Perspective: Florida Is Still Up Dramatically Since 2020

Despite recent pricing softness, Florida homeowners have still seen substantial appreciation over the past five years:

• Condo prices per square foot: +26% since 2020

• Single-family homes: +34% since 2020

Income growth has helped improve affordability for condos — though higher HOA fees often offset this benefit.

💡 What Does This Mean for Sellers in 2026?

If projections hold true, Florida home prices may continue to adjust downward into 2026, especially in condo-heavy markets and communities with rising maintenance costs.

This means:

• Pricing a home correctly from day one is more important than ever

• Sellers waiting for “the market to bounce back” may find themselves facing even lower values later

• Homes in excellent condition or renovated are outperforming older, deferred-maintenance properties

• Buyers are becoming increasingly payment-sensitive due to insurance and HOA costs

For sellers, now may be a strategic time to capture today’s market value before further declines occur.

At Vacay & Co Real Estate, we specialize in navigating Florida’s shifting market — especially for vacation homes, resort communities, and condo investors in the Disney area. Our goal is to help you secure a strong sale in a softening market using strategic pricing, premium marketing, and expert negotiation.

📞 Thinking of Selling in 2026?

Understanding where the market is heading is key. If you're considering selling your Florida home or vacation property:

✨ We offer complimentary pricing evaluations
✨ We analyze your property's strength in the current market
✨ We advise on timing your sale for the highest return

Reach out anytime, we’re here to help you make informed decisions in a changing market.

Property Evaluation Report Here

📲 Contact Vacay & Co Real Estate

📧 [email protected]
📞 321-333-1338
🌐 www.vacayreflorida.com